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December 17, 2010 at 4:41 am #17625MachatiParticipant
Museveni leads with 66% – poll
Thursday, 16th December, 2010
By Barbara Among
IF Ugandans were to vote today, President Yoweri Museveni would win with 66% of the vote, while FDC chief Kizza Besigye would come second with 12%, according to a poll.
The winner needs only 51%, according to the Constitution.
Commissioned by donors and conducted between November 16 and December 6, the poll says DP leader Norbert Mao and UPC candidate Olara Otunnu would each get 3%.
Beti Kamya, on the other hand, would get 1%.
The rest of the candidates, Abed Bwanika, Bidandi Ssali and Samuel Lubega, would get zero percent each.
Afrobarometer, which carried out the poll, specialises in surveys on democracy and governance in Africa.
The group operates in 16 countries across west, east and southern Africa.
This is its fourth round of survey in Uganda; the first was in 2002.
In the survey, Ugandans said they would vote for Museveni because of his personality, leadership skills, and the ability to deliver on jobs and development. Only 2% said they would vote for him because he belongs to their ethnic group.
The poll, however, shows several surprises that are bound to shake some long-held ideas about regional and demographic voting patterns, as well as where the patterns, as well as where the strengths of various candidates and political parties lie.
For instance, the ruling National Resistance Movement party has gained support across the country, including the eastern and northern regions, where Museveni performed poorly in the 2006 elections. In the central the poll gave Museveni 59% of the vote, 83% in the west, 59% in the north and 64% in the east. This is about 20% gain for Museveni in the north.
Surprisingly, his two-time rival, Besigye, who beat him in the east and north in 2006, has only 11% in north and 13% in the east. In the central, where political analysts expected him to do well, he scored 12%.
Even in Kampala, where Besigye beat Museveni in the previous election, he has only 15% against Museveni’s 44%.
The poll was released in Kampala yesterday by the Afrobarometer at the offices of the Deepening Democracy Group, which commissioned it.
It said Mao would only manage 8% in the central, zero in the west, 2% in the north and 1% in the east.
Otunnu, it added, would not get any votes from the central and west and only get 1% in the east and 11% in the north.
Kamya would score 2% from the west and central and 1% from each of the other regions.
The poll also said 3% of the 2,000 voters interviewed were not sure who to vote for.
Asked which party they liked most, 72% chose NRM, 28% picked FDC, while 15% said they would go for UPC.
Some 38% said they disliked FDC, UPC and DP. The same percentage said they were neutral.
Most of the people interviewed attributed their dislike for the parties to their past experiences, unrealistic promises, inexperience and perceived tribalism.
A poll conducted from June 21 to July 23 by New Vision showed that 52.72% of Ugandans at the time would vote for President Museveni.
The Forum for Democartic Change leader, Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, came second with 16.06%. The DP boss, Norbert Mao, got 5.41%, followed by Olara Otunnu of the UPC with 3.14% and Bidandi Ssali of the People’s Progressive Party got 1%.
Other issues in the survey
Ugandans want the next President to address health, education, corruption and unemployment.
Although it found out that 90% of Ugandans would vote, 59% feared post-election violence, while 73% of the respondents predicted that the loser would concede defeat.
It showed that the presidency was the most trusted institution with 68%, followed by the courts at 61%, though this is a decline from 71% in 2005. The Police is the least trusted institution in the country, the survey showed.
Ugandans, however, feel that the current government has failed to end corruption and provide jobs.
While 53% of the respondents said the existing electoral laws were sufficient to deliver free and fair elections, only 47% said they trusted the Electoral Commission to deliver.
The good news for the Electoral Commission chairman Badru Kiggudu, is that 53% of Ugandans said he was doing a good job.
The opposition has on several occasion demanded his resignation, alleging that he is incompetent.
On public awareness, the poll said about 50% of Ugandans knew that the elections are due on February 18 and could name two or more presidential candidates. 58% of the respondents said they had attended campaign rallies.
While 90% said they felt free to vote for a candidate of their choice, 63% said they are not free to comment on political issues.
On vote buying, the NRM party came first, followed by the FDC. Respondents said the parties had offered them money, household items, alcohol and job promises. Despite this, 77% said they would take the money but vote for a candidate of their choice.
The survey also assesed the impact of recent events across the country on the NRM chances of re-election. On the reopening of CBS, only 30% said it would impact positively on the outcome of the vote.
The Government closed the Buganda kingdom radio station in September 2009, accusing it of inciting violence. It re-opened it last month.
On the disputed NRM primaries, 33% of respondents said it would negatively impact on the party.
How survey was done
The survey involved 2000 adult Ugandans in 71% of 112 districts, or 79 districts.
It lasted for 19 days between November 18 and December 6.
Areas, households and individuals were selected randomly.
It used face to face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice. These were Luganda, Runyankole-Rukiga, Runyoro-Rutooro, Lugbara, Alur, Luo, Ateso, Akirimojong and Lumasaba.
The age of the respondents ranged from 18 to 75 years. Half were male and the other female selected from both urban (14%) and rural (86%) areas.
Overall margin of error is +/- 2.5December 17, 2010 at 4:53 am #27325MachatiParticipant
We’ve got a problem with all these hungry white wolves coming to Africa to confuse our people. They pretend to be running real opinion polls while trying to brainwash the Africans in order to keep them in this field slave situation. May they choke on the food they buy with the money they get paid to help evil men to hurt God’s people.
Opinion poll places Museveni at 66%
By Tabu Butagira
Friday, December 17 2010
How survey was conducted
•The lead consultant for the survey was Mr Robert Ssentamu, the managing director of Wilsken Agencies Ltd and Centre for Democratic Governance. The two firms are the Uganda partner for Afrobarometer, a research firm operating in some 20 African countries.
•Afrobarometer’s deputy Director Carolyn Logan oversaw the research as well. Sixty research assistants collected field data for the research from Nov 18 to Dec 6. About 2000 respondents of voting age, were interviewed using questionnaires administered face-to-face.
•Interpreters translated the questions into a vernacular and back to English to rule out any misinterpretation. Field data was entered simultaneously during interviews and the data analysed for a week using the Special Package for Social Scientists. The research was carried out in 71 districts. Its results have a + or -2 error margin, meaning percentage representations could be two points higher or less.
The opposition parties have ceded political ground to the ruling NRM party in the past five years and President Museveni would win with 66 per cent if the February 2011 ballot was held between November 18 and December 6, a new opinion poll to be launched today shows.
The survey conducted by Afrobarometer, a research organisation operating in some 20 African countries, indicates that the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) presidential flag bearer, Dr Kizza Besigye, would garner 12 per cent of the votes.
Some 60 research assistants collected data for the latest findings, according to lead researchers.
The results show both Mr Norbert Mao and Mr Olara Otunnu, who respectively are flag bearers for the country’s oldest political parties, the Democratic Party and Uganda Peoples Congress would each pick only 3 per cent of the votes.
Uganda Federal Alliance’s Beti Kamya, the only woman in the presidential race, would take 1 per cent while other contestants — Mr Bidandi Ssali, Mr Abed Bwanika and Mr Samuel Lubega would, Afrobarometer officials will say, get some votes but not enough to quantify to a wholesome percentile.
Mr Robert Ssentamu, the managing director of Wilsken Agencies Ltd, the Ugandan partner of Afrobarometer, said in a pre-launch briefing to newspaper editors in Kampala yesterday, that they interviewed some 2,000 randomly-selected respondents in 71 of Uganda’s 112 districts.
Almost nine in every 10 registered voters say they will turn up to vote, he said, with more voters in rural than urban areas willing to cast the ballot.
The survey findings, which gave NRM an icing on the cake by saying the party is the most liked and more than half of the voters will tick for its parliamentary candidates, is a heartbreaker for the opposition that says it is working round-the-clock to at least deny Mr Museveni victory in first round of voting.
Under the Constitution, a candidate can only be declared a winner if they pick 50 per cent-plus-1 vote of the valid ballot.
Mr Wafula Oguttu, the spokesman for Forum for Democratic Change party whose leader Dr Besigye is the IPC joint candidate, offered early misgivings about the results questioning the kind of drastic change in Mr Museveni’s governance style to warrant such favourable swing.
He said: “The government has the ability to know when a political opinion poll is coming up and it would wish to influence, but I am not saying it influenced [the outcome] of this report. I would be very surprised if President Museveni gets even 40 per cent of the votes in the first round.”
The Electoral Commission says it has registered some 13,954,129 voters to participate in next year’s general elections, opening with the presidential and parliamentary vote on February 18.
Out of these, according to Afrobarometer, 89 per cent (12,419,174) will turn up at the polling booth and with 66 per cent ticking for the incumbent, it would mean President Museveni’s votes will topple the 8 million threshold, double the 4,078,911 votes he obtained in 2006.
“This means all the new voters (more than 4 million) voters, or those who absconded in the 2006 elections, have suddenly decided they will vote for Mr Museveni,” said Mr Oguttu, “I don’t see any sense or reason to believe this.”
The top four issues, highlighted in the survey, on which voters will base their choice of the next President are improving social services such as health and education; maintaining order in the nation, fighting corruption and growing the economy.
In the past few months, the issue of whether the upcoming presidential vote could head for a re-run has been dominating debate with some political pundits predicting so based on the 10 per cent point fall in the incumbent’s score in the last three successive votes.
Mr Museveni, now running for a fourth elective term, in 1996 won with 75 per cent but his score plummeted to 69 per cent in 2001 – when Dr Besigye, his former bush-time physician, ran against him for the first time. In the subsequent poll roughly five years ago, the President would only garner 59.3 per cent.
Last night, NRM spokesperson Mary Karooro Okurut said there is an upswing in support for the party in northern and eastern parts of the country, where it has been performing poorly, because residents’ fortunes have changed with the 2005 end of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency that also adversely affected Teso.
“There are no more IDP camps and reconstruction has begun,” Ms Okurut said. “In fact, candidate Museveni will win by landslide, not just the 66 per cent projected.”
The respondents listed, in descending order, personality or leadership skills; ability to deliver jobs or development; candidate’s party and ethnicity as top attributes for a presidential candidate when asked: “Which of the following is most important to you when deciding who to vote for President or MP?”
While for prospective lawmakers; the interviewees ranked ability to deliver jobs or development top most followed with personality/leadership skills while the candidate’s party and ethnicity rank bottom low.
This would mean individual merit, a hangover from the ‘No-party Movement’ system of governance ditched in 2005, will most likely determine whether or not a flag bearer triumphs.
Afrobarometer’s Ssentamu, who holds a Masters Degree in Behaviour Science from the University of Cape Town in South Africa, said their survey, the fifth since 2000, provides “a scientifically-reliable” information.
Asked if the predictions would come to pass, co-consultant Logan, an assistant Professor of political science at Michigan State University in the US, said the situation is still “fluid” and any of the variables could change anytime.
“There’s fluidity in people’s views and views can change between now and election days depending on what’s constantly happening on the ground.”
Today’s report titled; Uganda 2011 Elections: Campaign Issues, Voter Perceptions and early Voter Intentions, shows Mr Museveni, in power since 1986, is the most popular candidate across different geographical regions, age groups and among rural and urban voters.
The Afrobarometer which conducted the survey is an independent, non-partisan research project that measures the social, political, and economic atmosphere in Africa, according to information on its website.
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